With just 45 days left in President Donald Trump’s 90-day tariff freeze, the world’s major economies are in a frantic push to secure new trade agreements and avoid steep new tariffs. While U.S. businesses, consumers, and foreign governments express concern over growing uncertainty, officials warn that the fast-approaching deadline will leave little room for negotiation—countries without deals face automatic new tariff levels.
This article outlines the status of negotiations with America’s largest trading partners, the details of Trump’s proposed tariffs, and the specific issues at stake in each case.
The Countdown: High Stakes and High Pressure
President Trump’s reciprocal tariff strategy offers every country the chance to negotiate new trade terms. But officials, including Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, warn that those who fail to reach an agreement by July 9 will be presented with a take-it-or-leave-it tariff assignment. This has created a rush of last-minute diplomacy and significant tension in global markets, with central bankers citing tariffs as a major source of economic risk and inflation.
Status of Major Trade Negotiations
Here’s where the U.S. stands with its key trading partners:
- United Kingdom – 10% tariff: The U.S. and U.K. recently announced a “full and comprehensive” deal, but the pact maintains a 10% baseline tariff on British goods. Sector-specific carve-outs for autos and steel are included, but many key details—including quota sizes and security rules—remain unresolved.
- China – 34% tariff: The U.S. has paused its 145% cumulative tariffs, now leaving a 30% duty in place for 90 days, while China lowers its tariffs on American imports to 10%. Negotiations are ongoing, modeled after the “phase one deal” of 2020, but both sides acknowledge shifting product mixes and market realities.
- European Union – 20% tariff: U.S.–EU talks have stalled. The European Commission responded to a U.S. proposal—described by one official as a “wish list of unrealistic demands”—but hopes for a breakthrough remain low.
- India – 26% tariff: Following recent talks in Washington, India and the U.S. aim to reach a phased agreement before July. The first step would address industrial goods, some agricultural products, and non-tariff barriers, with subsequent stages expected to broaden the scope and require congressional approval.
- Japan – 24% tariff: Japanese negotiators are working toward a deal, but refuse to rush into concessions. Key issues include the 25% U.S. tariff on auto imports and Japan’s interest in seeing all tariffs removed.
- South Korea – 25% tariff: Working-level discussions continue in Washington. Focus areas include trade balance, non-tariff measures, digital trade, and rules of origin.
- Vietnam – 46% tariff: After several days of negotiations, both sides have made progress on some issues, with technical teams assigned to close remaining gaps in the coming weeks.
- Thailand – 36% tariff: Thailand is preparing for upcoming negotiations, with a focus on tightening export rules and reducing the U.S. trade deficit by as much as $15 billion a year.
- Canada: While exempt from Trump’s reciprocal tariffs due to the USMCA, Canada faces other trade pressures, including a 25% tariff on many goods and ongoing disputes over autos, steel, and aluminum. Canada seeks a comprehensive update to the USMCA but has no formal talks scheduled.
- Mexico: Also protected by the USMCA, Mexico’s critical auto sector still faces a 15% duty on non-U.S. content. Mexico continues to seek exemptions and address security and tariff concerns in ongoing talks with the U.S.
Economic and Political Ramifications
The tariff uncertainty is weighing on markets and policymaking. Central banks, including the Federal Reserve, say unresolved trade disputes and the possibility of higher tariffs are holding back growth and may delay interest rate changes. Many trading partners are bracing for last-minute “take it or leave it” deals, while others may face unilaterally assigned tariff rates, upending long-standing trading relationships.
“Ninety days is an incredibly ambitious period of time. After July 9th, countries left on the cutting room floor will be handed a document with commitments that they can either take or leave in exchange for a new tariff rate.” — Kelly Ann Shaw, former Trump trade adviser
What Happens Next?
With the July 9 deadline looming, many nations will spend the coming weeks in high-stakes talks, racing to avoid steep U.S. tariffs and safeguard their economies. For those unable to secure a deal, the coming months could mean major adjustments to global trade, supply chains, and domestic policy.
