In 1939, industrial designer Norman Bel Geddes envisioned a world without traffic deaths. His solution — self-driving cars guided by embedded sensors in highways — captured imaginations at the World’s Fair and laid the groundwork for decades of technological ambition. Yet, more than 80 years later, traffic fatalities remain alarmingly high, and the promise of automation as a silver bullet has proven elusive.
As Automotive News marks its centennial, the persistent tragedy on American roads — more than 40,000 deaths per year in recent records — reminds us that technology alone is not enough. It also prompts urgent reflection on what solutions can make a real difference moving forward.
A Crisis That Won’t Subside
On average, 112 Americans lost their lives each day on the road in 2023, according to NHTSA. That’s the equivalent of a daily airline disaster — a scale of loss that has not garnered the sustained public outcry or policy urgency it deserves.
Tech’s Missed Expectations
2009 marked a turning point: Volvo debuted automated emergency braking, and Google launched its self-driving car program. The prevailing belief was that such technologies could bring about a dramatic decline in crashes and fatalities. Instead, the opposite happened. Over the past 15 years, U.S. road deaths have increased by 21 percent. Technology didn’t prevent the surge — and in some cases, may have complicated it.
Lessons From History
The first known automobile fatality in the U.S. occurred in 1899 when H.H. Bliss was struck by an electric taxi in New York City. Just 25 years later, annual fatalities had climbed to over 18,000. Alarm bells rang — including from The New York Times, which compared the automobile to a more deadly machine than a weapon of war — but the momentum for reform soon faded.
The Mirage of Automation
Peter Norton, author of Autonorama, argues that society has placed too much faith in future tech while ignoring more practical solutions. “We have learned, mistakenly, to think of technology as a problem solver,” he said, pointing to the continued rise in road deaths despite the proliferation of advanced systems like lane-keeping assistance and automated braking.
Mixed Results from Advanced Safety Features
The Insurance Institute for Highway Safety (IIHS) has studied automation’s impact. Some technologies do help:
- Automated emergency braking (AEB) cuts rear-end crashes by 50 percent
- AEB with pedestrian detection reduces pedestrian crashes by 27 percent
- Blind-spot monitoring lowers injury-causing lane-change crashes by 23 percent
Yet, many systems fall short in real-world scenarios. Pedestrian AEB, for instance, fails at night — a time when visibility is lowest and risk is highest. And partial automation features can lull drivers into overconfidence, treating safety tools as conveniences rather than active support systems.
Human Behavior Remains the Biggest Threat
Despite advancements in car design and crash survivability, behavioral factors like speeding and impaired driving continue to dominate fatal crash data. According to the Governors Highway Safety Association, speed contributes to roughly 30 percent of fatal crashes, while drunk driving plays a role in about a third.
Policy Inaction
Jonathan Adkins, executive director of the GHSA, believes federal regulators have not done enough. He criticized the Biden administration for failing to mandate alcohol-detection systems in vehicles. “They sat on their hands,” he said, adding that strong leadership — potentially from a returning Trump administration — could leave a lasting legacy by requiring such technology.
Adkins also highlighted missed opportunities in trauma care. While emergency transfusions could save lives, current rules restrict federal safety funds from supporting such measures because they might aid non-traffic-related incidents.
Robotaxis: Promise With a Caveat
Waymo, Google’s autonomous vehicle division, has logged more than 25 million driverless miles and serves over 200,000 rides per week in cities like San Francisco and Phoenix. The company claims its robotaxis have reduced injury crashes by 73 percent compared to human drivers.
Still, these vehicles are not without flaws. Examples include Waymo cars crashing into the same tow truck and Cruise vehicles driving into wet concrete. There are just over 650 Waymo vehicles in service — a drop in the ocean compared to the nearly 290 million cars on U.S. roads. Mass deployment remains years away.
Where Do We Go From Here?
Experts like David Harkey of IIHS emphasize that no single solution will solve this crisis. Instead, layered strategies — combining behavioral changes, infrastructure redesign, effective policy, and responsible tech integration — are required to make meaningful progress.
“It’s a shared responsibility,” Harkey said. “Small blocks at a time, we can build out and show the success that can be had.”
As we look ahead, the vision of traffic death eradication that once captivated the public remains distant — but not impossible. The key may lie not in the perfection of future vehicles, but in how we reimagine our roads, our responsibilities, and the role of technology in serving human lives, not just driving them.
