This week, the U.S. Senate will decide whether to block California’s landmark plan to phase out sales of new gasoline-only vehicles by 2035—a policy that has already been adopted by 11 other states and is reshaping the national auto market. Here’s what’s happening, who’s pushing for a repeal, and why the outcome could affect drivers, automakers, and emissions standards nationwide.
California’s Ambitious EV Mandate Under Fire
California’s plan, officially approved by the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) in late 2022, requires automakers to sell only zero-emission passenger vehicles by 2035. It sets interim targets, too: 35 percent of new light-duty vehicles sold in the 2026 model year must be zero-emission models, rising to 68 percent by 2030.
This sweeping standard has been adopted by 11 additional states, including New York, Massachusetts, and Oregon. Combined, these states account for nearly 40 percent of the U.S. auto market. However, Vermont and Maryland have already postponed their compliance, citing practical difficulties.
Automakers Sound the Alarm Over Feasibility
The Alliance for Automotive Innovation, which represents major car manufacturers, argues that California’s targets are simply unattainable given current EV sales trends—currently below 10 percent in some states. They warn that automakers could be forced to cut production of traditional vehicles and sharply limit consumer choice just to meet the requirements. “Automakers around the country would be forced to close down a significant part of their traditional vehicle production with serious consequences,” Senate Majority Leader John Thune said as he called for the Senate vote.
“Car companies could be forced to substantially reduce the number of overall vehicles for sale to inflate their proportion of electric vehicle sales.” — Alliance for Automotive Innovation
The Legal and Political Showdown
The House of Representatives voted on May 1 to repeal the EPA waiver that enabled California to enact its own emissions rules. The House also separately moved to rescind the EPA’s 2023 approval of California’s mandate for zero-emission heavy-duty trucks.
Democratic senators and legal analysts contend the Senate’s efforts violate established procedures. The Government Accountability Office stated in March that these waivers cannot be overturned via the Congressional Review Act (which requires only a simple majority). The Senate parliamentarian later agreed, warning that moving forward would be both rare and controversial.
What This Means for Consumers, Dealers, and the Market
If California’s rules are upheld, major automakers will have to accelerate their shift to electric vehicles and phase out gasoline models faster than current trends predict. For buyers, this could mean fewer choices and potentially higher prices if automakers curtail traditional vehicle offerings to comply.
If Congress overturns the rules, it would be a major setback for California’s climate ambitions and could slow the national EV transition. It would also signal a significant shift in how much authority states have to set stricter air quality standards than federal law demands.
The Road Ahead
The outcome of the Senate vote will impact:
- Automakers’ ability to plan and invest for a nationwide EV transition.
- Consumers’ access to both gasoline and electric vehicles through 2035 and beyond.
- The ability of states to set their own aggressive emissions standards.
- Legal precedent for how future environmental waivers are granted and challenged.
The Senate’s decision—coming despite objections from its own nonpartisan advisers—marks a pivotal moment for the auto industry, environmental policy, and federal-state relations on climate regulation. Whether California’s 2035 gas vehicle ban moves forward or is stopped in its tracks, the ripples will be felt by drivers, car dealers, manufacturers, and policymakers nationwide.
